A system for dating and detecting turning points in the euro area
J. ANAS
, M. BILLIO
, , Gian Luigi Mazzi
2008, Manchester School, 76(5), pp.549-577
Abstract
In the paper we aim to introduce a statistical dating and detection of turning points giving them a first economic interpretation. The main advantage of the proposed approach is represented by the fact that classical and growth cycles are jointly considered both in the dating and in the detecting stage. A key result of this choice is a better description of different economic phases as well as a more accurate investigation of the economic cyclical behaviour. The proposed approach considerably improves the relevance of information delivered to users in comparison with a standard analysis based only on classical or growth cycle component.