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Recession: Should We Be Concerned? Laurent Ferrara’s Analysis in Midi Libre
Is France on the brink of a recession? The question has fueled public debate in recent weeks as several economic indicators weaken simultaneously: sluggish growth, persistent inflationary pressures, rising unemployment, and high levels of public debt.
Interviewed by Midi Libre, Laurent Ferrara, Professor of International Economics at SKEMA Business School (SKEMA Center for Global Risks) and Chairman of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee (CDCEF), urges caution before concluding that the French economy has entered a recession.
A Weakened Economy, but Not Officially in Recession
From a strictly technical standpoint, France is not yet in recession. A recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic product (GDP). However, after contracting by 0.2% in the first quarter, economic activity remained flat in the second quarter, according to the latest estimates from France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE).
According to Laurent Ferrara, these figures should be interpreted with caution. The CDCEF, which he chairs, may soon meet to determine whether the French economy has in fact gone through a recessionary phase. Its assessment will be based on several criteria, including the duration of the slowdown, its magnitude, and how broadly it has affected the economy. “At this stage, we have not formally identified a recession,” he told the regional daily newspaper.
A Series of Economic Shocks
The French economy is facing a succession of disruptions that are weighing on activity. Geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainty, extreme weather events, and fiscal policies aimed at reducing public deficits are all contributing to slower growth.
Higher energy prices have also fueled the resurgence of inflation, while heatwaves and drought conditions have affected key sectors such as construction and agriculture. Against this backdrop, business failures continue to rise and the labor market is showing signs of fatigue.
A Higher Risk, but Still Limited
Despite this challenging picture, Laurent Ferrara believes that a recession is not currently the most likely scenario.
“The risk of recession has increased, but it remains low at this stage,” he explains.
Growth forecasts remain modest, with several economic institutes expecting GDP growth of around 0.5% in 2026. Such a pace would not be sufficient to quickly reduce the public deficit or significantly reverse unemployment trends, but it would nevertheless allow France to avoid a genuine contraction in economic activity.
Understanding Economic Cycles
A recognized specialist in international business cycles, Laurent Ferrara focuses on economic conditions, macroeconomic fluctuations, and transformations in the global economy. His research notably examines real-time measurement of economic activity and the identification of turning points in the economic cycle.
