Abstract
What kind of forecast information is needed for safe and sustainable Arctic maritime activities now and through 2035? Building on the SALIENSEAS project’s platform for coproduction of climate services for maritime sectors active in European Arctic waters, a group of experts were brought together to develop
scenarios for safe and sustainable maritime operations by the year 2035. Starting with the focal question “What information is needed to successfully respond to changes impacting Arctic maritime activities now and through 2035?” participants deliberated the most influential drivers of change that will impact the need for metocean and sea ice services to reduce uncertainties in maritime operational and tactical planning.
The post-workshop robustness analysis explored the most plausible, consistent and robust bundles or combinations of future projections under each Key Factor. This produced three scenarios, for each the twelve Key Factors contributed one future projection -depending on whether the criteria for analysis is plausibility, consistency or robustness. This revealed the most plausible one to be a “Growing Pains” scenario, the most consistent to resemble a “The Winner Takes it All” scenario, and the most robust titled “All Aboard the Arctic Express”; a scenario series that demonstrates complex social, political and biophysical conditions dictating cross-sectoral stakeholder needs for research, observation and policy focus (see Results).
Climate change and increased access in Arctic waters are creating a suite of questions for development planning policies: will increased access enable increased development? What are the strategic and security dimensions of upcoming changes? Maritime sectors, agencies, and communities have been
trying to tackle what information they need to adapt to changes and to benefit from upcoming opportunities. By revealing the core drivers of change that maritime stakeholders and policy experts find significant to support safe and sustainable Arctic operations, these scenarios can help guide scientific engagement and development planning policy by taking the long view.